美财长一席话引发的血案!?黄金美盘“飞流直下”逾30美元

  金价周一(8月10日)从上一交易日触及的纪录高位回落,因美元在一周高位附近徘徊,而投资者等待美国就救助法案达成协议,以帮助受疫情打击的美国经济。

  美市盘中,现货黄金再度跌至2020美元/盎司下方,较日高回落逾30美元。上周五金价曾创下2072.50美元的历史新高。

  现货黄金周一亚市早盘开于2033.19美元/盎司,最高上涨至2049.70美元/盎司,最低下探2018.90美元/盎司,收于2027.01美元/盎司,下跌7.60美元或0.37%。

  COMEX 12月黄金期货收涨0.6%,报2039.70美元/盎司。

  “这只是升势中的自然回调,人们只是在了结获利,因为金价上涨如此之快,而美元在过去两天一直在上涨,”U.S. Global Investors主管交易商Michael Matousek表示。

  “但美元的波动很小,这说明对美元走高的信心不大,这就是为什么金价的回调幅度应该不大。”

  随着世界上最大的两个经济体之间的紧张局势不断升级,美元守在一周高点附近,投资者关注美国的援助计划和中美将于8月15日举行的会晤。

  在美国财长努钦表示本周可能就救助法案达成协议后,金价稍早小幅上扬,但在他拒绝透露谈判何时重启后,金价回吐涨幅。

  努钦称,如果能与民主党就新冠肺炎援助问题达成公平协议,我们将于本周实现。在新冠疫情援助问题上,我们不再像此前一样处于”紧急“状态。

  “世界各国政府短期内不会停止印钞来对抗新冠病毒,黄金将从中受益。黄金的下一个目标价为2090美元,”RJO Futures资深市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示。

  由于新冠肺炎病例不断增加,黄金价格今年已飙升34%。新冠肺炎给全球经济带来了沉重打击,并促使各国出台了前所未有的刺激措施。

  金银T+D方面,上海黄金交易所黄金T+D周二晚盘收盘下跌0.39%,报441.01元/克;上海黄金交易所黄金T+D周一收盘下跌3.94元或0.88%,报442.00元/克,最高报价447.09元/克,最低报价438.90元/克。

  上海黄金交易所白银T+D周二晚盘收盘上涨3.33%,报6726.0元/千克;上海黄金交易所白银T+D周一收盘上涨1元或0.02%,报6593.00元/千克,最高报价6684元/千克,最低报价6360元/千克。

  基本面利好因素

  1.据Worldometers实时统计数据显示,截至北京时间8月11日05时17分,全球新冠病毒确诊病例达2019万例,新增168482至20195313例,死亡病例达73万例,新增3258例至736810例。其中美国新冠病毒确诊病例达523万例,新增34988例至5234432例,占全球确诊病例的逾四分之一;死亡病例达16.5万例,新增354例至165971例,占全球死亡人数的近四分之一。美国新冠确诊病例从400万例飙升至500万例仅耗时17天。美国流行病学家认为,美国新冠疫情出现多个新特征:①死亡病例持续增加;②病毒传播范围广,多地新增病例数激增;③年轻群体感染率上升。但疫情仍处于高位平台期,防控仍困难重重。

  2.中国周一对包括议员在内的11名美国公民实施制裁,以回应美国对11名香港和中国内地官员实施制裁,这些官员被控限制了香港这个前英国殖民地的政治自由。中方制裁的目标包括参议员泰德・克鲁兹( Ted Cruz)、马可・卢比奥(Marco Rubio)、汤姆・科顿(Tom Cotton)、乔什・霍利(Josh Hawley)、帕特・图米(Pat Toomey)、众议员克里斯・史密斯( Chris Smith),以及非营利组织和人权组织的个人。白宫发言人麦肯纳尼(Kayleigh McEnany)表示,中国的制裁是“象征性的、无效的”,但拒绝透露美国政府是否会做出回应。

  3.台湾方面表示,中国空军战机周一短暂飞越台湾海峡中线,并受到台湾导弹的追踪。与此同时,美国卫生部长阿扎尔(Alex Azar)访问台湾,以传达美国总统特朗普的支持。阿扎尔于周日抵达台湾,这是40年来访问台湾的最高级别美国官员。台湾空军表示,在阿扎尔与台湾总统蔡英文会面之前不久,中国曾承诺将对此次访问进行未具体说明的报复。大约上午9点,中国派出歼-11和歼-10战斗机短暂飞到台湾一侧,这条敏感而狭窄的海峡将台湾与中国大陆分隔开来。

  4.周一,香港媒体大亨黎智英成为根据一项香港国安法被捕的最高人物,他因涉嫌与外国势力勾结而被捕,当时约200名警察搜查了他的《苹果日报》(APPle Daily)的办公室。香港警方证实拘捕至少9人,全部是男性,年龄介乎23岁至72岁,他们涉嫌触犯“勾结外国或者境外势力危害国家安全及串谋欺诈等罪”,不排除更多人被捕。美国国务卿蓬佩奥对此表示,他对有关黎智英“根据香港严厉的国家安全法”被捕的报道“深感不安”。他说,这进一步证明中国共产党“掏空”了香港的自由,侵蚀了香港人的权利。蓬佩奥随后还表示,他对中国将重新考虑其在香港问题上的立场并不乐观,尤其是在媒体大亨黎智英根据香港新的国家安全法被捕之后。

  5.美国7月份新增176.3万个工作岗位,远低于6月份的480万和5月份的270万,而且有证据表明,重新出现的新冠病毒正在削弱就业和经济复苏。上个月,失业率从11.1%降至10.2%,不过仍超过了2008-2009年大衰退期间的最高水平。

  基本面利空因素

  1.在美国财长努钦称,如果能与民主党就新冠肺炎援助问题达成公平协议,我们将于本周实现,不过他未透露谈判重启时间。努钦表示本周可能就救助法案达成协议后,金价稍早小幅上扬,但在他拒绝透露谈判何时重启后,金价回吐涨幅。

  2.美国至8月1日当周初请失业金人数录得118.6万人,创3月14日以来新低;美国至7月25日当周续请失业金人数录得1610.7万人,创4月11日以来新低。

  3.美国总统特朗普周四表示,美国有可能在11月3日大选前研制出新冠病毒疫苗。这一预测比白宫卫生专家的预测更为乐观。在Geraldo Rivera电台节目中,当被问及疫苗何时可能准备就绪时,特朗普说,“比今年年底更快,可能会快得多。”在被问及疫苗是否可能在11月3日之前面世时,特朗普说道:“我认为在某些情况下,提前是可能的,但大约就在那个时候。”

  4.美国民主党总统候选人拜登称,他将取消特朗普对中国进口产品征收的关税,这是对美国消费者和公司征收的税。这位前副总统的声明驳斥了有关保护主义是获胜政治立场的传统看法。2020年2月的一项盖洛普民意调查显示,美国人对国际贸易的看法更加积极,79%的人认为贸易是“经济增长的机会”,只有18%的人认为贸易是“威胁”。

  后市展望

  1.Kitco.com的高级分析师Jim Wyckoff表示:“从技术上讲,多头具有强大的整体近期技术优势。”他表示,短期内黄金的阻力位可能在2100美元左右。他在每日报告中写道:“熊市的下一个近期下行价格目标是将期货价格推低至牢固的技术支撑位2000.00美元下方。”

  2.“这只是升势中的自然回调,人们只是在了结获利,因为金价上涨如此之快,而美元在过去两天一直在上涨,”U.S. Global Investors主管交易商Michael Matousek表示。“但美元的波动很小,这说明对美元走高的信心不大,这就是为什么金价的回调幅度应该不大。”

  3.“世界各国政府短期内不会停止印钞来对抗新冠病毒,黄金将从中受益。黄金的下一个目标价为2090美元,”RJO Futures资深市场策略师Bob Haberkorn表示。

  4.“贵金属方面,这就是凸面的样子――随着实际利率在过去几个月持续下降,黄金的反应函数已从线性关系转变为凸面关系,导致金价大幅上涨,”道明证券的分析师解释道。“然而,与此同时,上周五实际利率的小幅上升导致黄金价格大幅回调,这突显出看涨金价的投资者很容易受到过去几个月支撑黄金头寸的宏观驱动因素的小幅整固影响。”此外,分析师们警告称,可能出现头寸紧缩。“随着头寸膨胀到越来越高的水平,给看涨者留下的可供投资的资金所剩无几,疯狂的散户投机进一步加大了黄金多头套现的风险。”

  5.Economies.com撰文称,金价重新测试看涨通道的支撑线。金价需要在这一支撑上方整固以保持看涨趋势的有效性。需要注意的是,我们久违的目标位于2087.00,而跌破2024.00将是消极因素,其将推动金价跌向2008.00,随后才有可能再次尝试上涨。

  下一交易日重点关注

  14:00 英国失业率及失业金申请人数

  17:00 德国及欧元区8月ZEW经济景气指数

  18:00 美国7月NFIB小型企业信心指数

  20:30 美国7月PPI月率

  24:00 EIA公布月度短期能源展望报告

  次日04:30 美国至8月7日当周API原油库存

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